News, 18 June 2025
India’s total number of vehicles is projected to more than double by 2050, reaching almost 500 million from 226 million in 2023, according to new research from the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW). Two-wheelers are expected to constitute a significant majority of this increase, accounting for over 70% or more than 350 million of the projected total.
The research, which provides India’s initial district-level forecasts for vehicle ownership, overall cost, and fuel needs, predicts that private car ownership will almost quadruple to 90 million by 2050. Northern and western Indian states are expected to drive this growth in vehicle numbers, with Uttar Pradesh alone projected to have over 90 million cars by mid-century. While southern states might see ownership levels stabilize due to slower population growth, significant increases are anticipated in Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat.
At the district level, it is anticipated that the combined number of vehicles in Delhi, Bengaluru, Thane, Pune, and Ahmedabad will be 10% of the nation’s entire stock..
Conversely, for medium and large cargo vehicles, electric vehicles (EVs) currently present a higher cost compared to options running on diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), or liquefied natural gas (LNG). Projections suggest that LNG will remain the most economical fuel choice for trucks and buses until 2040. The studies emphasize that achieving widespread adoption of EVs and other environmentally friendly fuels, such as green hydrogen, across different vehicle types will require focused research, investments in infrastructure, and substantial cost reductions.
Unless there’s a rapid acceleration in electrification, fuel infrastructure development, and the adoption of green alternatives, diesel is likely to remain India’s primary transportation fuel well into the 2040s. Gasoline demand is anticipated to reach its highest point around 2032, while diesel demand is not projected to peak until approximately 2047 under current conditions. Given that buses and trucks are expected to generate about 70% of transportation-related emissions by 2050, the report urges immediate initiatives to reduce these emissions.
The report proposes several key recommendations: it advocates for implementing taxes based on distance traveled to compensate for decreasing gasoline tax revenues; it suggests promoting battery financing through public banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) to improve the accessibility of electric vehicles (EVs); and it advises strengthening the VAHAN portal to enhance data on vehicle stock. Additionally, to support home EV charging infrastructure, the report highlights the importance of understanding vehicle trends and mapping parking availability in quickly developing rural and peri-urban regions.
OEMs, fuel suppliers, financiers, and legislators are anticipated to synchronize their strategies for a low-carbon transportation future with the aid of the CEEW’s Transportation Fuel Forecasting Model (TFFM), India’s first district-level tool for predicting vehicle stock and energy demand.
India’s first district-level tool for forecasting vehicle numbers and energy needs, the CEEW’s Transportation Fuel Forecasting Model (TFFM), is expected to help original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), fuel providers, financial institutions, and policymakers align their plans for a future with reduced carbon emissions in transportation.
