In a recently released monthly vehicle registration data for May’20 by Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, vehicle sales have been very poor in all segments. The vehicle registration for the May 2020 is down by (-)88.87% as country continues to battle with Covid-19 and slow recovery from lockdown.
- On a YoY basis, all vehicle categories registered unprecedented de-growth. 2-Wheeler degrows by -88.8%, 3-Wheeler by -96.34%, CV by -96.63%, PV by -86.97%, and Tractors registrations fall by -75.58% respectively.
- Demand trend in the first 10 days of June shows extremely weak consumer sentiment.
May’20 Retail Sales
Commenting on how May’20 performed, FADA President, Mr Ashish Harsharaj Kale said, “For the first time in history, the month of April witnessed zero retail sales. While lockdown was gradually relaxed beginning May, auto dealerships and workshops opened partially after 40 days in many cities. At the end of May, out of 26,500 outlets about 60% showrooms and 80% workshops were operational across the country.
Though May 2020 vehicle registrations are not indicative of the demand situation as the “lockdown” continued in many parts of country in the month of May. But, the first 10 days of June witnessed extremely low demand despite most dealerships opening their business. Weak consumer confidence, especially in urban areas, continues to haunt as customers stay away from concluding their purchase due to the threat of community spread and return of complete lockdown persists.
With 7.6% of GDP, a workforce of several million and a multiplier effect for many supporting sectors, Auto Industry can be the driving force in boosting consumer confidence and improving sentiment, if supported with short term stimulus to revive demand as a return to normalcy seems very difficult till the festive season.
According to FADA, mobility still being a necessity and not a luxury in a growing country like ours, demand stimulus along with credit support can bring Auto Sales back in the positive zone within 30-60 days and help shore up consumer confidence.
Outlook for June
With an assumption of no further lockdown and continued reopening measures, there will be substantial pick up in Auto Retails in comparison to May, but the overall outlook continues to be grim with projected sales to witness a de-growth upwards of 25% YoY.
Urban Demand will continue to face challenges ahead with Covid-19 uncertainty. On the flipside, the Government’s push for infrastructure spending and the recent positive measures announced for Agriculture sector will help support rural demand. It will further strengthen with the normal spread of monsoon which will help Tier 2 and 3 Dealers face lesser de-growth compared to their urban colleagues.
Dealer Sentiment
A projected annual de-growth of 35% by SIAM on top of the 18% de-growth faced last year, the Dealership Community faces its toughest years ever as volumes are estimated to half in a span of 20 months.
With no direct support as a business community, except for the moratorium extension given to all businesses, the Dealership Community looks forward to an early recognition as an MSME to avail Government support for the survival and for its 40 lakh workforce.
With cost cutting having its limitations due to the nature of the Business, FADA is strongly pursuing with all our Principals to correct the long-pending anomaly of low sales margin and revise it upwards to 7% to get it at par at least at the lower band of global dealer margin which ranges from 7%-14%.
Lakhs of jobs and hundreds of dealers survival is at stake if demand de-growth predictions hold true and operating economics remain unchanged. FADA will strongly continue the campaign for higher business margins for the survival of its members in these uncertain times as it will also help us in self-sustenance as many more disruptions will come in the future in a globally connected world.
Inventory
Due to the Lockdown situation, Inventory analysis with regards to current retail will not depict a realistic scenario and hence will be resumed from June onwards.
Charts showing Vehicle Registration Data for May’20 with YoY comparison can be found below:
Vehicle Registration Data for May’20
| CATEGORY | MAY’20 | MAY’19 | YoY % |
| 2W | 1,59,039 | 14,19,842 | -88.80% |
| 3W | 1,881 | 51,430 | -96.34% |
| CV | 2,711 | 80,392 | -96.63% |
| PV | 30,749 | 2,35,933 | -86.97% |
| TRAC | 8,317 | 34,053 | -75.58% |
| Total | 2,02,697 | 18,21,650 | -88.87% |
Disclaimer from FADA:
1- The above numbers do not have figures from AP, AN, MP, LD & TS as all these States/UT’s are not yet on Vahan 4.
2- Online Survey has a limited sample size and reflects an overall trend.
3- Vehicle Registration Data has been collated as on 08.06.20 and in collaboration with the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Government of India, and has been gathered from 1,225 out of 1,435 RTOs.
